Two things happen in week four that can make for ugly weeks in pools that pick against the spread. The first is that bye weeks come in and there are two fewer games to pick, so the scores look worse than the previous three weeks even if the success rate is the same. More importantly, however, is that Vegas has a couple of weeks of evidence to figure out which teams are actually good and which teams were just surrounded by hype. This usually translates to "better" lines, from the standpoint of Vegas, making it harder to pick against them. For the next 5 weeks, anyone who manages a double-digit win week will almost certainly prevail for the week.
Many of us were solidly thumped this week, with a slew of 5s and 6s on the board, but two people came oh, so close to double digits, with 9 wins. PiT continues her run of strong showing, clearly demonstrating that prior knowledge of football only clouds one's judgment when making picks and that an alternative system can do well (over at least 4 weeks). However, the tie breaker this week goes to Candid Engineer, who came back strong once she started paying attention to the spread. Congrats to CE!
Because our league drops the lowest score for each person, I was able to maintain the overall lead with 30 points. Odyssey and PiT are close behind with 29 each and there is a four-way tie for fourth place at 27 points, with Mad Hatter, Nat, Alyssa and Tom@microworld all battling it out. DGT sits alone with 26 points and CE, Chall, Tideliar and AA are tied up with 25. Driving the tiny Shriner car in the rear is Genomic Repairman with 24 points, but the spread from front to back is merely 6 points, which can be made up quickly.
Good luck to all next week and CE, come get your trophy.
11 hours ago